The question of the feasibility of mining has gone beyond the thematic communities. Articles are now in many different parts of the Internet on this topic, from gaming resources and city forums. They warm up interest, and provoke even more confusion, the media, which with support opposite theses – that potential miners were several years late and that it is never too late to begin mining. Who is right?
How has the mining changed in recent years?
When Bitcoin appeared, almost no one knew about it and few of those who knew could hardly have imagined that in a few years one coin would cost more than $ 9000.
People took to mining out of interest to the new technology, for the sake of “fan”, but rarely – for the sake of real earnings, so mining was not very common. It was very simple. It was possible to mine on home computers that do not differ in special performance in 2009.
The situation has changed by 2010, when it was possible to get a stable income on Bitcoin mining. Some 5 dollars, but almost nothing needed to be done to get them. Therefore, some began to be involved in the mining process and those who joined earlier began to think how to increase the performance of their machines, because $ 5 is great, but 10 is better.
There were a lot of solutions, some remained in the past, but it was then that the first home-made farm mining on video cards, known today, appeared. Technological race has begun.
The first ASIC was presented in 2012. Then the farms began to grow into industrial ones. This double milestone in the history of mining has largely excluded home farms from the race for Bitcoin.
However, they resisted by switching to alternative cryptocurrencies – Lightcoin, and subsequently Ethereum. Bitcoin reached the four-digit mark by 2015 and greatly attracted public attention. Realizing that they were late for a couple of years, some newcomers, who understood the situation, relied on the promising looking Ethereum. There were more of them and in 2016, with their forces, Ethereum emerged from the shadows and began to make up for lost momentum with leaps and bounds.
Other currencies appeared in parallel, the course of Bitcoin, as before, invariably attracted attention, people were walking. They were only going to Ethereum now. By the end of 2016 – the beginning of 2017, the “comers” were so much that the miners of the loners were again left out of business. The difficulty of getting the “esters” increased too much. Only – a paradox – this time they were not pushed aside by the giants with ASIC – they forced themselves out.
Difficulties starting in mining today
Bitcoin, for example, corresponded in both parameters to mine it was easy and it was promising in 2010-2012. Now it remains promising and reliable, but the complexity has increased so much that it is pointless to mine it alone. Not much better is the case with Lightcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum and other “old men”.
Another thing is the new little-known currency. They are much easier to mine. However, the question is how useful the miner is to the miner and how much it will be useful to him in the future.
If reliable currencies are mined with the expectation that over time they will increase their rate compared to the current, then the growth of the rate of new currencies is questionable. The probability of its growth in the future is directly proportional to the complexity of mining.
That is, for example, the ZCash cryptocurrency, which many miners are now interested in and which looks more or less reliable and promising, requires more power than some little-known currency from the top 20. A little-known currency from the top 20 is easy and convenient, but it will not burst whether it is in a couple of months whether it will bring income is not clear.
It turns out that the miner has to choose to mine more reliable currencies and get crumbs or mine less reliable, which can collapse at any moment.
Both positions have supporters, both positions are supported by successful miners and financial analysts. We can say that none of them is absolutely wrong in such circumstances. However, a person who assesses the prospect of mining should heed the arguments of both parties.
Why is it too late to mine?
It is easy not to pay back investments or lose a source of income in the current environment and this applies to the most reliable currencies. For example, starting to mine Ethereum now, the miner faces the risk that very low profitability (for a single miner) will decrease even more, the situation with Bitcoin will repeat.
Starting to mine the currency of average reliability, such as ZCash, the miner faces the risk that its rate will suddenly and sharply rise – respectively, miners from all over the world will begin to actively move to it. As a result, there will be a “second Ethereum” – a promising and reliable currency, which is too difficult to mine.
Here everything is obviously talking about currencies, which are mining now everything. Miner is hard to indulge with industrial farms and ASIC farms alone and will not get a lot in pools.
Earlier, in order to build a profitable farm, $ 500-1000 was enough, so the farms paid off quickly. Now, firstly, for the construction of a profitable farm, you will need to invest in more expensive equipment, and secondly, traders who see the hype perfectly, raise prices. Those video cards that previously could have been bought for $ 400, 500, can now cost more than $ 1000.
In addition to investments in equipment, which can be up to $ 5,000, there are also electricity bills. After the farm pays off (which under current circumstances can happen even in a year, although 2–3 months was enough before), the net profit may be low if a person lives in a region with expensive electricity.
As an alternative to Bitcoin appeared in the form of Ethereum, an alternative to Ethereum may appear, which generally will not involve the process of mining coins. It is possible that this technology will be breakthrough and the world will switch to it, leaving the bulky and “raw” pioneers – Bitcoin and Ethereum – in the past. So far there is no hint of such a currency, but it is impossible to expect that mining of any currency will generate income over the years.
Or is it not too late to mine?
This, of course, is not about Bitcoin, but, for example, Ethereum can bring miner a tangible profit. Its path is very similar to the path of Bitcoin. Now it costs $ 400, and there are no prerequisites for which it will go astray from its predecessor, and therefore, in a few years it may cost the same $ 9000.
Among the new currencies there are interesting, promising “Coin”. This is just the beginning. Technological currencies will continue to appear, grow in price and overtake their predecessors, and therefore, if you track them in time and start mining before the majority take them, you can get a good profit. It does not require too expensive farm – enough for an average.
The stories of the shortage of video cards and how enterprising citizens bought them in hundreds and resold this wealth at exorbitant prices became the talk of the town. However, trade exists in the conditions of informatization and globalization, from which it follows that the shortage of video cards could not and can not be a prolonged phenomenon. They began to appear again.
Prices are still at the same level, but their decline is predicted, since, in addition to equipment from “official” suppliers, a “gray” product began to enter the masse market, naturally, at lower prices. Official stores will have to focus on them.
Recent months have been relatively unsuccessful for the purchase of equipment for mining, but, contrary to forecasts that the situation will worsen, it has a tendency to improve. That is, it will be easier to build your own mining farm from the point of view of finding components and financially.
There are countries where a small farm consumes barely enough money to pay for the electricity that a small farm consumes. There are countries where electricity is cheap. Some people live in regions where it can be obtained from renewable sources, etc. In these places, mining can bring a good net profit.
The same is with the rate of dollar. Mining is less profitable in countries where the dollar is the national currency than in countries where you can live happily ever for $ 100. Not without reason, mining in South-East Asia is so common that a quarter of the “ether” a month can provide the owner of a mining farm with a relatively carefree life. Therefore, in countries where the dollar is worth a lot, in particular, it makes sense to take on mining.
How to choose a cryptocurrency for mining?
Bitcoin, of course, now is a “departed train” for everyone who does not want or does not have the opportunity to spend $ 20, 30 thousand to build a truly competitive farm for mining. You can try to mine altcoins, if you choose them correctly.
The Ethereum will be the best choice if the budget allows you to invest in a powerful farm (more than 4 thousand dollars). Despite the complexity, it still makes sense to mine it, if you do it not on 3 cheap video cards, but on 9-12 or at least 6 leader cards. Payback does not exceed a year and often comes to 3-5 months.
If the budget fluctuates within 2-3 thousand dollars, then to collect a large farm for mining a tangible amount of the same Ethereum will not work. If the miner is ready to wait and he does not need to quickly discourage his investments, he can build a small farm and start saving Ethereum, waiting for his finest hour, when the crumbs become equivalent to a substantial dollar amount.
In general, it makes sense to pay attention to other altcoins. More promising are those that offer something new and necessary and therefore among the options are Monero, ZCash, etc.
If the budget does not exceed 2 thousand dollars, then it is really too late for the oldies to go. It is much more practical to start mining more risky, but cheap and simple altcoins.
It is reasonable not even to dwell on those who are well-known, such as those mentioned Monero and ZCash, but to analyze the top-men – each one. It is necessary not only to mine, but to constantly keep track of the crypto market, readily, at the right moment, sell coins and switch to mining others.
However, only this strategy will give a better understanding of the market and with high probability will become profitable, because in the end the analyst miner will learn to recognize currencies that can be easily and profitably mined, at least in the short term and his farm will work for a long time for the most profitable currency from existing at the moment.